World Bank Projects Nigeria’s Fastest Growth in a Decade at 4.4% in 2026, 2027

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, marking what it described as the country’s fastest growth pace in more than a decade.

In its Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, the Bank retained its 2027 growth forecast for Nigeria at 4.4 percent and upgraded its 2026 estimate to the same level, from the 3.7 percent projection published in its June 2025 report. The upward revision reflects growing optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term outlook, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions despite persistent structural challenges.

The projection comes after Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.46 percent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signaling steady momentum in economic activity.

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According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s growth acceleration will be driven largely by sustained expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest improvement in non-oil industrial activities. “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 202, the fastest pace in over a decade,” the Bank said, adding that services and agriculture will remain the main pillars of economic performance over the forecast period.

The Bank also highlighted the role of ongoing economic reforms, particularly in the tax system, alongside prudent monetary policy, in supporting economic activity and strengthening macroeconomic stability. It said these measures are expected to improve investor sentiment and further ease inflationary pressures.

In addition, higher oil output is projected to help offset lower international oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and strengthening Nigeria’s external balance. The continued emphasis on non-oil growth, the World Bank noted, underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s diversification efforts aimed at reducing dependence on crude oil exports.

A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could also support job creation, stabilise prices and broaden the government’s revenue base over time. For policymakers and investors, the World Bank’s outlook provides cautious confidence that recent reforms may begin to deliver tangible results, even as the economy continues to face underlying vulnerabilities.

Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank expects economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to strengthen to 4.3 percent in 2026, driven by economic reforms, resilient domestic investment and easing inflation across the region. Globally, growth is projected to moderate slightly to 2.6 percent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 percent in 2027, an upward revision from the Bank’s June forecast, reflecting moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, despite ongoing geopolitical and climate-related risks.