Businesses and households in Nigeria expect inflationary pressures to remain broadly stable in the months ahead, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Inflation Expectations Survey for November 2025.
The report shows a moderation in inflation sentiment, with the Inflation Perception Index settling at 43.5 points. The share of respondents reporting high inflation perceptions declined to 52.3% in November, down from 56.5% in October, suggesting easing price pressures across parts of the economy.
Inflation perceptions varied across business sizes. Micro enterprises reported the highest inflation pressure at 54.6%, followed by large firms at 53.7%, medium-sized firms at 49.3%, and small firms at 46.4%. The trend indicates that smaller and more informal businesses continue to face relatively higher cost pressures.
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The CBN noted that the overall decline in inflation perception was largely driven by businesses. “The decline in current inflation perception was mainly influenced by the opinions of business respondents, which fell from 55.4% in October 2025 to 50.3% in November 2025,” the report stated.
Respondents identified energy costs, transportation, and exchange-rate movements as the primary drivers of inflation, while other factors were seen as less significant.
Official data supports the improving sentiment. Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.45% in November 2025 from 16.05% in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reflecting a year-on-year decline under the November 2009 base year. Food inflation also moderated, falling to 11.08% year-on-year in November.
Outlook and policy context
Survey results indicate that most businesses expect inflation to remain stable over the next one, three, and six months. Households also anticipate short-term stability but see a higher likelihood of rising prices over a six-month horizon, pointing to lingering medium-term concerns.
In December 2025, President Bola Tinubu reiterated the government’s commitment to curbing inflation, projecting a decline from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2026. The target was outlined during the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, although several analysts have expressed scepticism about the feasibility of the goal.
Why it matters
The CBN survey suggests a gradual easing of inflation concerns, particularly among businesses, supported by slowing headline inflation. While pressures from energy, transport, and foreign exchange remain key risks, greater price stability could support planning, investment, and consumption decisions.
The improving sentiment aligns with broader economic indicators. Nigeria’s private sector expanded further in November 2025, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 56.4 from 55.4 in October, signalling continued economic recovery momentum.
